Osun 2026 Election: The Demystification of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola

Ogbeni Aregbesola 

Former Governor. Former Minister. Former Commissioner. Former best friend & confidant of President BAT GCFR. And now, a full-time opposition member of the ADC, a staunch political opponent of the APC  & everything it represents & also Governor Adeleke too.

But politics, ultimately, is not about titles, history, proximity or mythology. Politics is about numbers. And when the numbers come, they have a rather unforgiving way of stripping away the mystique.

If there is one thing the recent governorship election in Osun State has exposed, it is the uncomfortable truth about the supposed political weight of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, the former Commissioner for Works in Lagos, 2-term Governor of Osun State & former Minister of Interior under the APC-led administration of PMB.

For years, Aregbesola has been spoken of, & has spoken of himself, as one of the formidable political forces in Osun &, by extension, one of the major political players in the Southwest. But the ballot box has now had its say.

And from what the ballot box has told us, Ogbeni Rauf may have been a political heavyweight in the imagination of many, but the evidence before us suggests something considerably less imposing: a paperweight or in fact, a no weight at all! Chai!!! 

That is not an insult. It is an electoral diagnosis. And the numbers are there for everyone to interrogate. So, how did the great political machine perform? Consider this.

Aregbesola is not some newcomer to Osun politics. He governed the state for 8 years. He was once regarded as one of the strongest political figures in the state. He was a major political ally of President Tinubu. He has a reputation for having a formidable support base, particularly within the Ijesa axis of the state, where he hails from.

He has now thrown his considerable political reputation behind the African Democratic Congress, ADC.

And for this election, the party’s candidate was no political lightweight either. Rt. Hon. Najeem Folasayo Salaam, former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly & a former member of the House of Representatives, was the ADC candidate.

If Aregbesola's much-advertised political weight is as substantial as it has been projected, this should have been the moment to demonstrate it.

Instead, Salaam finished a distant third with a paltry 17,180 votes.

The Accord Party's Senator Ademola Adeleke (incumbent Governor, won with 511,067 votes, while the APC's Bola Oyebamiji came 2nd with 444,815 votes. The winning margin was therefore a staggering 66,252 votes.

That is not a minor electoral gap. That is an electoral canyon. And it becomes even more revealing when one begins to dissect where these votes actually came from.

The Ijesa question

Aregbesola is an Ijesa man. The Ijesa bloc is therefore one of the natural places where one would expect his political influence to be most visible. But what happened?

In the 6 local government areas that make up the major Ijesa concentration, Ilesa East, Ilesa West, Obokun, Oriade, Atakunmosa East & Atakunmosa West, the numbers tell a story that is difficult to explain away. Accord Party: 77,193 votes. APC: 79,920 votes. ADC: 2,351 votes.

Let that sink in.

In the very political territory from which one of the supposed Southwest's most prominent ADC figures hails, the ADC could only muster 2,351 votes across 6 local governments hmmmmm... 

Two thousand, three hundred & fifty-one.

For a political structure that has been portrayed as formidable, that number is not merely disappointing. It is devastatingly revealing. And it gets even more interesting.

Even Aregbesola's own Ilesa political territory did not exactly rise to the occasion for the ADC.

At his own polling unit in Ilesa, the reported figures were APC 256, Accord 43 and ADC 13. Thirteen.

Sometimes, politics does not need a long speech to make its point. A ballot paper can say it in three numbers.

And then came Ejigbo

The ADC candidate, Najeem Salaam, is from Ejigbo LG. Surely, if anywhere was going to be an ADC fortress, this should have been it. Yet Ejigbo Local Government gave Salaam only 5,053 votes.

Accord Party received 18,458.

APC received 16,195.

In other words, both of the 2 leading parties comfortably defeated the ADC in the very local government from which its candidate hails.

The supposed fortress was breached from within. And that is precisely why the result becomes bigger than Najeem Salaam.

It raises a much more fundamental question about the political structure supposedly standing behind him.

Because candidates do not manufacture 17,180 votes out of thin air. They are the product of structures, personalities, mobilisation, loyalty & political influence.

And when all of those are put to the test, the ballot box tells us what actually exists, not what has been said to exist.

Adeleke's Ede fortress

Now look at the other side of the equation.

Governor Ademola Adeleke did not merely win Osun. He demonstrated the power of his own political base.

In Ede North which is his paternal base, the Governor polled 35,427 votes. In Ede South, he polled another 26,188.

That gives him a combined 61,615 votes from the 2 Ede local governments alone.

The APC managed 10,283 in Ede North & 6,219 in Ede South, a combined 16,502. That's a margin of 46,113. It's so obvious where the votes which propelled him to victory came from then. 

ADC? Just 697. The contrast is almost brutal.

Adeleke's Ede delivered. Aregbesola's ADC did not.

And perhaps this is one of the most important lessons of this election: Political mythology may create headlines, but political structures produce votes.

Then came Ife

The APC's reconciliation with Senator Iyiola Omisore was another major political calculation in this election. But did it produce the expected electoral dividend?

The results suggest otherwise.

In the 4 Ife local governments, Accord won 3.

Ife North: Accord 13,879; APC 9,613.

Ife Central: Accord 21,171; APC 15,913.

Ife East: Accord 27,201; APC 18,600.

In Ife South, APC narrowly prevailed with 14,678, against Accord's 13,507. By just an inconsequential 1,171 votes which didn't count for much in the overall.

Overall, Accord polled 75,758 votes across the 4 Ife local governments, while APC managed 58,804.

ADC? A mere 2,305 votes. Again, the numbers refuse to cooperate with the mythology.

Then came Irewole

Bola Oyebamiji, the APC candidate, demonstrated that political candidates can also have formidable local structures.

In his Irewole Local Government, he polled 29,972 votes, against Accord's 10,934.

ADC?v275 votes.

Two hundred & seventy-five. The numbers keep speaking. And they are becoming increasingly difficult to silence.

The Senatorial Districts tell an even bigger story

Perhaps the most compelling way to examine this election is not merely through individual local governments but through the 3 senatorial districts in the state.

Osun has 3 senatorial districts, each comprising 10 local governments.

And Accord Party won all 3 senatorial districts. In Osun Central, Accord polled 169,164 votes, against APC's 162,094 and ADC's 4,472.

In Osun East, Accord polled 152,951, against APC's 138,724 & ADC's 4,656.

In Osun West, Accord polled a remarkable 188,952, against APC's 143,997 & ADC's 8,052.

Again, look closely at that last figure.

The biggest margin of victory came from Osun West, the same senatorial district from which the 3 major contestants emerged. And Adeleke did not merely win there. He danced home. He actually breakdanced! Chai!!! 

The aggregate numbers across the 3 senatorial districts tell the story even more forcefully:

Accord: 511,067

APC: 444,815

ADC: 17,180

There is almost something poetic about the disparity.

The ADC, with all the political noise & pedigree surrounding it in Osun, could not even get to twenty thousand votes in an election where the 2 leading parties were battling in the hundreds of thousands.

So, what exactly has Osun 2026 demystified? It has not demystified Rauf Aregbesola as a man. It has not erased his history.

It has not taken away the fact that he was a 2-term Governor. It has not erased his years as a major political figure in Lagos or his tenure as Minister of Interior.

And certainly, it does not erase his former proximity to President Tinubu.

But it has done something more important. It has subjected the mythology of his current political influence to the coldest & most objective test available in politics: the ballot box. And the ballot box has returned a rather humbling verdict.

Perhaps Ogbeni Rauf is not the political heavyweight many imagined him to be.

Perhaps his political influence today is considerably smaller than his reputation.

Perhaps he has mistaken historical relevance for contemporary electoral strength.

Or perhaps, more simply, he has overestimated the number of people who are still willing to follow him politically.

Whatever the explanation, Osun 2026 has provided the 1st hard empirical evidence with which the question can be seriously examined.

And the evidence is not flattering. But there is an even bigger question. What does all of this mean for 2027?

That is where this becomes considerably more interesting.

Can the ADC, under Aregbesola's leadership, suddenly transform 17,180 votes in Osun into a meaningful presidential-election structure across the Southwest?

Can a party that could only manage 2,351 votes across the 6 major Ijesa LGAs suddenly become a serious electoral force?

Can a former Speaker from his own political camp poll only 5,053 votes in his own Ejigbo, while Accord polled 18,458 & APC 16,195, & still claim a formidable grassroots machine?

These are not questions of sentiment. They are questions of arithmetic. And politics, especially electoral politics, has a brutal relationship with arithmetic.

But there is another intriguing dimension.

Governor Ademola Adeleke has publicly demonstrated support & cordiality towards President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR.

Yet in Osun, he has now defeated the APC candidate by a whopping 66,252 votes.

That tells us something important about Nigerian politics.

Local political allegiance & presidential political allegiance do not always travel together.

A politician can oppose the APC at the state level & still maintain a working relationship with the President at the federal level.

Adeleke's Osun victory therefore should not automatically be interpreted as a presidential referendum on Tinubu.

Neither should it be dismissed as irrelevant to 2027.

Rather, it raises a much more fascinating question: If Ademola Adeleke can command 511,067 votes in Osun while maintaining a publicly cordial relationship with President Tinubu, what happens when the presidential contest arrives?

And perhaps even more importantly: Where will the political energy that currently belongs to Adeleke's formidable Osun structure ultimately flow?

That is the question the political class should be asking.

Not merely who won Osun. Not merely who lost.

But what the numbers have revealed about who actually commands people, structures & loyalty when the rubber meets the road.

Because Nigerian politics has always had its legends. Its godfathers. Its kingmakers. Its strongmen. Its political juggernauts.

And, sometimes, its carefully cultivated myths.

But every 4 years, the ballot box comes along to ask one brutally simple question:

“Show me your followers.” In Osun 2026, the ballot box asked Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola that question.

And, at least from the numbers before us, the answer was surprisingly small.

Very, very small. That may well be the real story of Osun 2026.

Not simply the victory of Ademola Adeleke. Not simply the defeat of Bola Oyebamiji aka AMBO.

Not simply the spectacular underperformance of Najeem Salaam.

But the demystification of Ogbeni Rauf. The legend has met the numbers. And the numbers, as they say, do not lie.

Abiola Olatunde Aloba,

Ijesa by paternal blood. 

Ijebu Ode blue blood by maternal connection. 

Iran Describes UAE’s Allegations at BRICS Summit as Baseless

 Iran’s Environmental Representative on Tuesday Confronted and Categorically Rejected the UAE’s Baseless Allegations at BRICS Summit.

On August 18, 2026, during the 12th BRICS Environment Ministers Meeting in New Delhi, India, Arman Khorsand, Director of the Center for International Affairs at Iran’s Department of Environment, issued a stern response to the UAE’s allegations that Iran had "attacked the UAE."

Mr. Khorsand’s response was precise and unequivocal, highlighting the following key points:

First, Mr. Khorsand categorically denied all allegations made by the UAE. He emphasized that Iran’s military actions were "directed solely at the sources of threats to the Iranian people" and that the country has consistently "avoided any attacks on the civilian infrastructure or populations of neighboring nations."

Second, Mr. Khorsand clearly identified the presence of U.S. military bases on UAE territory as the root cause of regional tensions. He issued a stern warning: "Any nation that hosts an aggressor and paves the way for attacks against Iran will be held accountable for the consequences of its actions."

Third, Mr. Khorsand urged BRICS member states to uphold the principles of good-neighborliness, peaceful coexistence, and non-interference. He called upon all members to ensure their territories are not used to support or facilitate hostile acts against other nations, particularly Iran.

Fourth, Mr. Khorsand strongly criticized the UAE for raising political and security issues at an environmental conference. He noted that such conduct "violates the spirit of mutual respect and dialogue upon which the BRICS partnership is built" and "runs counter to the meeting's primary focus on environmental issues."

Mr. Khorsand’s remarks served as a forceful rebuttal to the UAE’s attempt to politicize the environmental forum. His words reflected both Iran’s strategic confidence as a regional power and its steadfast stance in the face of external pressure.

Tehran Rejects Ceasefire, Says The War Must End, Not Paused

Araghchi 

As the 60-days ceasefire between Unites States and Iran comes to and end, Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that "Tehran has rejected ceasefire proposals. The war must end, not be paused."

According to Sources, Iran doesn't want to extend the 60-day MOU agreement with the U.S.

This recent war showed that foreign forces and foreign bases not only could not bring security but instead turned into security disruptors.


Iran maintained that countries without U.S. military bases suffered less damage, while foreign bases were unable to defend even their own interests against attacks.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Seyed Araghchi said  the recent war changed how the region sees security with Tehran.


Araghchi says Persian Gulf securities should be collective, led by regional states without outside powers. That’s Iran’s preferred post-war vision.

Meanwhile, Gulf states are signing defense pacts and reassessing reliance on U.S. bases. Everyone is trying to shape what comes next as the old order looks shakier. 

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said "The era of relying on the United States is over. American bases are liabilities, not assets. This recent war showed that foreign forces and foreign bases not only could not bring security but instead turned into security disruptors."

Araghchi said, 'You're better of without U.S. involvement,' is the very clever pitch. How can Trump protect us when he is unable even to protect his own country?"


Araghchi sees one “collective” future, but the rest of the region is quietly building several others.

On the Iran's success in terms of negotiations with the US, FM @araghchi said President @drpezeshkian was our main supporter in the negotiation process.


 When the Americans proposed negotiations, President Pezeshkian believed that we should use this opportunity to find a way to end the war.


 The president proposed including @mb_ghalibaf in the negotiating team. Even in the minutes that were prepared, Pezeshkian insisted: “Mr. Ghalibaf’s name must be written as the person responsible for the negotiations so that I can sign it.”

 Araghchi says Israel “was, and remains” the biggest obstacle to implementing the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US.

Iran's top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaking in Tehran, says that the strategic Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until the United States meets Tehran’s demands, including lifting a naval blockade of the country’s southern ports.


President Donald Trump orders his team to avoid talks with Iran until Tehran is ready to sign an agreement.


The U.S. may be preparing for a significant shift in its military footprint across the Gulf following months of Iranian attacks, The Washington Post reports, citing eight American officials.


Officials say Washington is examining whether maintaining the current concentration of forces in the region remains viable, including the future of bases that suffered heavy damage during the conflict.


The Pentagon is reportedly considering relocating some forces farther from the Persian Gulf rather than restoring damaged facilities to their previous configuration.


The potential move would represent a major change in U.S. regional strategy and would also address one of Tehran’s central demands for any future arrangement over the Strait of Hormuz.


US envoy Jared Kushner says conversations between Washington and different areas of the Iranian government are more “robust” than ever, though the two sides have not yet reached an understanding.


The Trump administration is reportedly considering surrendering U.S. bases in the Gulf and weighing a pullback from the Persian Gulf after Iranian strikes crippled American bases, with allies now questioning whether U.S. forces have become a liability, per The Washington Post.


Eight people familiar with the matter told the Post that the Defense Department is assessing whether to rebuild damaged bases or scale back the U.S. military footprint in the Middle East.


According to a source close to Iranian officials insisted Donald Trump has no viable options beyond accepting Iran's conditions — $300 billion in compensation, release of frozen assets, lifting the naval blockade, and an end to hostilities across all fronts — arguing that U.S. military and economic leverage has been significantly depleted, Iranian outlets.


The source cited three factors behind Tehran's confidence:


The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: The SPR has fallen to roughly 293.4 million barrels, its lowest level since 1982, reducing Washington's energy cushion during a prolonged Hormuz disruption.


Munitions shortages: The U.S. has reportedly fired more than 1,500 Patriot interceptors, while stocks of ATACMS and PrSM missiles have been heavily depleted. Replenishing inventories could take years.


Political pressure: With the midterms approaching and the war facing domestic opposition, Tehran sees mounting pressure on Washington to contain both the conflict and elevated energy prices.


“Trump has no option but to accept Iran's conditions,” the source said, arguing that Washington cannot escalate without risking further economic damage, but cannot withdraw without conceding Hormuz.

Iran Nemesis: President Trump speaks about North Korea's Kim Jong Un as his best friend

Kim& Trump 

US President Donald Trump speaks about North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un as his best friend. “Kim Jong Un has always treated me with great respect.

We spent time. I understand him. He understands me.

He didn’t like anybody, but I get along with him very well.

What I'm doing is making things safer.”

According to Donald Trump, US will "substantially reduce" joint military exercises with South Korea, citing his "very good relationship" with North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un.

He also noted on Truth Social that South Korea had recently declined to join the US in the "denuclearisation" of Iran.

"These exercises are not only costly, with much of these costs paid for by the United States of America (as usual!), but send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile," Trump posted.

I called the president of South Korea. I said, “Would you help with Iran? If you would like, we don’t need help.” He said, “No thanks.”

I said, “What do you mean? We have 39,000 soldiers over there guarding you from Kim Jong Un, and you are not going to help us with Iran? That’s strange.”

Then why are we involved with helping you? Protecting South Korea is costing us billions of dollars.

Seoul said it was reviewing Trump's comments, adding it hoped a favourable relationship between Washington and Pyongyang could lead to meaningful talks. Pyongyang has not yet commented.

Earlier, South Korea said the drills with the US would proceed "as scheduled".

It comes after North Korea this month conducted ballistic missile tests prohibited by the United States

He also noted on Truth Social that South Korea had recently declined to join the US in the "denuclearisation" of Iran.

Trump on Sunday said it was "too late to cancel", as the US and South Korea were due to start their annual military exercises on Monday. "While somewhat unrelated (?), I recently asked the President of South Korea if they would like to join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they said, 'No thanks!'"

Trump's announcement came less than 24 hours after he posted an old photograph of himself and Kim from 2019, writing the two were great friends.

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Monday, Trump explicitly linked his decision to South Korea's refusal to "give us a little hand" with Iran. We have 39,000 soldiers over there guarding you from Kim Jong Un, your next door neighbour, and you're not going to help us on a very easy military operation in Iran," he said. "That's strange".

"All I want is fairness," he later added.

In its statement, South Korea's presidential Blue House said it would continue diplomatic consultations on US-Korea military cooperation related to the Strait of Hormuz, while discussing details on joint military drills with the United States.

According to a BBC report, experts suggest the walking back of joint military exercises could carry a high cost with relatively little benefit.

"US-South Korea combined defence exercises are essential for military forces to be ready and capable of doing their jobs," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.

Scaling them back can damage alliance coordination, slow the process of South Korea taking on greater responsibility for its own defence, and weaken deterrence against possible conflicts in Asia.

"The cost savings from downsizing drills are marginal, while the diplomatic benefits for relations with North Korea are doubtful."

Last week, US and South Korean military leaders held a joint press conference announcing Ulchi Freedom Shield.

They said the 11-day event would be similar in scale to previous years, with about 18,000 South Korean soldiers participation 

During the news conference, military leaders also mentioned North Korea's deployment of troops to aid Russia's war against Ukraine.

US military spokesperson Ryan Donald said "our training accounts for that threat", referring to North Korean soldiers returning from the battlefield. About 28,500 American military personnel are stationed in South Korea.

On Friday, North Korea's foreign ministry condemned the joint military drills as "a rehearsal for an aggressive war".

The joint exercises come days after South Korea, the US and Japan detected the second North Korean missile test in days

Pyongyang has accelerated efforts to expand its nuclear and missile programmes since the collapse in 2019 of Kim's high-profile diplomacy with Trump during his first term in the White House.

He became the first ever sitting US president to set foot in North Korea when he visited seven years ago.

For Seoul, Trump's post is a mixed message. On the one hand, they have been requesting Trump engage with Pyongyang and the post raises hope that he might bring Kim back to the table

But Trump is also hinting that he is unhappy with South Korea's unwillingness to make direct military or logistical contributions to the US hostilities with Iran.

He has also expressed displeasure with other allies for their hesitance to get involved in the conflict, including Japan, France and the UK.

Trump's move to downsize joint military exercises with South Korea is not without precedent.

He suspended the exercises entirely in 2018, during denuclearisation negotiations with Kim. He said at the time that the annual drills were "provocative" towards North Korea and stopping the "war games" would save the US a "tremendous amount of money."

The exercises were again scaled back in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.

It was predicted that President Trump would suspend or scale down US-SK joint exercise, or even reduce the size of US troops in Korea.

Last week, South Korea's president proposed talks with its northern neighbour on officially ending the war between the two, which is technically still active since an armistice was signed in 1953

Trump has noted multiple times in the past that the US is providing security to South Korea without getting much in return.

He has criticised the number of troops it has stationed in the peninsula and the money spent.

This has complicated Washington's relationship with Seoul, which sees the troops as core to its alliance with the US.

Seoul tried to defuse the tension earlier this year, committing $350bn to investing in the US. And last year President Lee Jae Myung described Trump as a peacemaker.

Osun’s 2026 verdict and what it means for Nigeria’s opposition

BITTER PILLS; THRILLING RECOVERY, DRIZZLING PERFORMANCE

Politics in Nigeria rarely comes without bitterness. In Osun State, the August 15, 2026 governorship election served another dose.

Governor Ademola Adeleke has emerged victorious, weathering what his camp described as political intimidation and the weight of federal might deployed against him. It is a win that feels less like a stroll and more like a trek through thorns — hence the _bitter pills_. But the recovery has been thrilling, and the performance, though uneven in places, has been drizzling steadily enough to convince voters to grant him a second term. 

The Battle Against the Odds

Adeleke’s re-election bid was never framed as business as usual. Running this time on the platform of the Accord Party, after leaving the PDP amid national crisis, he faced the APC’s Bola Oyebamiji and ADC’s Dr. Najeem Salaam in what observers called another highly competitive contest. 

In the run-up, Adeleke himself alleged killings of party members and called on President Bola Tinubu to direct the police to act professionally and impartially. He described 2025 as “a challenging year due to external constraints” and warned against “beating drums of war” ahead of the poll. 

Yet the governor leaned on what he called people-centred governance and visible projects across the state. His campaign council, inaugurated in Osogbo, promised grassroots mobilisation “at the wards and local government level”. The message was simple: performance over propaganda, calculated inauguration of projects in virtually all constituencies to force out his admirers and non admirers particularly amongst the traditional rulers to a reelection campaign laced with an appealing projects

“If this election is free and fair, I will win,” Adeleke said on the campaign trail. With less than 15 days to go, he declared “NO SHAKING, Imole is coming back”. Analysts also noted his long-standing relationship with civil servants, artisans and trade groups as assets. 

Labour Party: The Missed Opportunity

While Adeleke was consolidating, the Labour Party was bleeding internally as a blissful opportunity were being lost in the process

The 2023 and 2024 political realignments created an opening. Several disrupted and evicted incumbent Governors of the PDP, frustrated by internal wrangling at the national level, looked for new platforms. Labour Party, with its post-2023 momentum, should have been the natural refuge. Instead, internal squabbles, factionalism, and lack of structure turned it into a waiting room with no exit.

The result: most of those PDP governors and heavyweights either returned to mend fences, moved to APC, or sat out. Labour Party failed to harvest them. What could have been a national expansion became a period of self-inflicted losses.

In Osun, that void mattered. Without a credible third-force structure, the contest narrowed to Accord, APC and ADC. Labour’s absence meant there was no serious alternative to absorb protest votes or disgruntled PDP structures. Adeleke would have preferred Labour Party at the time he was shopping for a platform and ultimately have added immensely to our structure, unfortunately the harvest slipped out.

Drizzling Performance, Thrilling Recovery

Adeleke’s first term was defined by infrastructure, welfare programs, and a deliberate effort to be seen and felt in the grassroots. Critics argued about concentration of projects around Ede, but supporters point to the “difference that purposeful, people-centred governance can make”. 

He nearly became a politically stagnated orphan at a period in time, it was rumoured that powers that be denied him an appointment for a meeting but communicated him through a first class Yoruba king that he should go and join the ruling party, every attempt made by him to compromise was negated by Baba Kukuru, Esu lehin APC who loudly drum it to his ears that he will have to queue as the ticket will not be offered to him, that's a bitter pill to swallow. He encouraged himself further his search for another platform and landed in ACCORD PARTY, accordingly he became a man to celebrate today.

The recovery is thrilling because it came after 2022, when Adeleke defeated an incumbent with federal backing. To do it again in 2026, this time outside PDP, suggests a personal brand that transcends party lines. If re-elected, he would become only the second governor in Osun’s history to secure a second term. 

But the performance is still “drizzling” — steady, but not yet a downpour. Expectations on jobs, security, and inclusive development remain high, especially with rising insecurity flagged as a factor in 2026. 

*Time to Rethink and Recover Lost Ground*

Two lessons stand out.

1. For incumbents: People will reward delivery, even under pressure. Adeleke’s confidence came from pointing to tangible records, not just party structure. “_This team is heading to victory_,” he told his campaign council.

2. For the opposition: Labour Party’s failure to organize and accommodate displaced political forces was costly. The window to rethink is now. Without internal discipline, ideology, and structure, it risks remaining a movement of moments rather than a party of government. Many see the party as a transactional platform as many who did not toil in the party had managed to position themselves and political stooges in positions of power, ready for harvest in most states. Should this trend continue, we shall suffer existential threats and consequences 

Osun 2026 reminds us that Nigerian voters are watching. They will swallow bitter pills if the recovery feels real. They will ignore loud noise if the performance is only drizzling.

The question now is not just who won Osun. It is whether other parties — especially our own Labour Party — will learn fast enough to recover the grounds they lost, recreate a bigger platform for ideological opposition and alternatives before 2027 comes calling.

© Apagun Olaolu Samuel 

Chairman, Labour Party Ogun State 

egberunsaamu2206@gmail.com

US-Iran-War: Why U.S. allies in the Gulf frustrated, lost trust in Trump administration

The commander of the US Central Command, Adm. Brad Cooper completed a 10-day trip to the Middle East on Saturday, visiting six countries and the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea as more than 50,000 US troops operate across the region.

While at sea, Cooper met with Sailors and Marines aboard USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) for the second time this year. He previously visited the aircraft carrier in February with U.S. Special Envoy for Peace Missions Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner,” CENTCOM posted on X.

 According to a report by the Washington Post, U.S. allies in the Gulf have completely lost trust in the Trump administration, growing increasingly frustrated over his inability to end the war with Iran, stating that American actions in the region make them "less safe, not more safe." 

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain are all growing dissatisfied with Washington as the conflict drags on. One Arab official said bluntly: "Trump started this war, and we are paying the price for it."

The frustration is now translating into action. The recent defense pact signed between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan was described by a senior European official as a direct "signal to the U.S." and an effort to diversify security partnerships. A European official said: "From their perspective, America alone is not enough."

Gulf leaders feel they have been dragged into a war they didn't choose. Firas Maksad of the Eurasia Group said U.S. allies feel they are "unnecessarily trapped in a war that Trump is now struggling to end." Trust in Washington has eroded, with Gulf states believing that American actions in the region make them "less safe, not more safe."

The message from the Gulf is clear: Washington is no longer seen as a reliable guarantor of regional security. Allies are looking for alternatives — and Trump is running out of time to win back their trust.

In recent weeks, pessimism has increased in the White House regarding the possibility of reaching a final nuclear agreement with Iran.

According to a Wall Street Report, President Trump's advisors presented him with data on the damage caused by sanctions and convinced him to prefer intensifying economic pressure over waging a war that could cost much more money and could largely lead to losses that would increase internal criticism within the US administration.

Tehran has repeatedly stated it's not negotiating with the United States until the end of the Donald Trump's administration. The Persians hoped to pressuring Washington into agreeing with Tehran's demands. Both military and threats have failed to bring Iran to hers knees as none of the U.S. pre-war stated objectives have been achieve.

Iran has directly announced a $30,000 reward for any Iranian force that captures or kills an American soldier, per Iran's state media IRIB.

Army Chief Maj. Gen. Amir Hatami said the reward comes "from the Iranian people" and is aimed at U.S. forces in the region. The announcement follows the U.S. Rewards for Justice program, which offered up to $10 million for information on Iran's Supreme Leader and senior IRGC officials.

The U.S. Military has also announced that it is preparing 15,000 intercontinental ballistic missiles to respond to an imminent Iranian attack. Officially, if Israel is attacked, Russian bases and all of Iran's interests across the Middle East—including Tehran—will be destroyed, and the entire world will witness the devastation.