The GRAVITY, the CAVITY, and the CAPTIVITY OF THE NIGERIAN POLITICAL SPACE
As the Nigerian political space is being unnecessarily and increasingly overheated, political timetable compressed by INEC, electoral guidelines being changed abruptly amidst the game, and fulfillment of all electoral activities being swiftly runned by political parties in the wrong directions as petitions, rejoinders, counter petitions and court papers are flying here and there bore testimony to lack of adequate preparation and information dissemination from the electoral body and political parties. Several factions are shooting out dailies from political parties as the incumbent are not left out as they tarried long enough in some states awaiting the ruling party in such a state to cave in to the official party of the incumbent government.
Nigerian politics no longer lives only in Abuja conference rooms. It lives on X, in Nollywood skits, in Afrobeats lyrics, in WhatsApp broadcast lists. It pulls like a magnet, echoes like an empty hall, and traps like a cage. Gravity, cavity, captivity. Three forces shaping every election, protest, and debate. From 2023 till now, Nigerian politics moved from handshake deals at the grassroots and communities to hashtag wars, the space became a stadium, gravity pulls everyone in through social media, cavity left us shouting in the void, captivity kept the doors locked and the last four years has proven that.
*The Gravity: Why does everyone get pulled in*
Gravity is mass and pull/attention, Nigerian politics has both now in record amount, though it is likely to decline as some of first timers weakling politicians and social media influencers are no longer operating at the level they did in 2023, political godfather's and electoral management officers taught them lessons they will not forget so soon.
1. Culture and Ethnicity is the campaign*: Prevalent ethnicity turn by turn and the new cultural trend of Influencers forming public opinion is generating more of the gravitational force than reasonable blueprint of redemption for Nigeria. From Fela’s yabis to Burna’s "Monsters You Made", music does what manifestos can’t. A single tweet from Wizkid or Davido shifts more votes than a party rally in some states. "Soro Soke" from 2020 EndSARS became the campaign language in 2023. Peter Obi’s movement was powered less by party structure and more by Afrobeats fans, skit makers, Twitter spaces. Davido, Falz, Aisha Yesufu became de facto campaign managers. For the first time, a candidate’s Spotify playlist mattered as much as his party manifesto.
2. Youth are the mass: 70% of Nigerians are under 35.. That’s not just a demographic. It’s a gravitational field. "Obidients", "Soro Soke", "No gree for anybody" Apagunmanians, in the Ogun State Labour Party fast spreading across the southwest— these weren’t party slogans. They were cultural movements that dragged politics into everyday talk. They were not bought, or sought, they were pulled by the force of gravity, they organically sprouted as a movement beyond party boundaries to fill in the political cavity..
INEC said over 37m voters collected PVCs before 2023, and most were 18-34. That’s gravity. TikTok explainers on BVAS got more views than NTA debates. In 2027, that mass is older, more cynical, and already organizing on WhatsApp communities and X Spaces before parties even pick candidates.
3. Outrage is the orbit: Bad news travels faster than policy. One viral video of police brutality or failed infrastructure pulls more attention than a 50-page budget. Once you’re in orbit, silence feels like betrayal. My daughter engaged me on social media visibility and wishes someone will drag her, particularly someone whose followers runs to millions, which will advertently rubbed on her media visibility, but having a media visibility without a matching ground structure sometimes make a political party fizzle out in the shortest period of time. Imagine the "Ikeja City Mall protest", "Obidients" Twitter trends, even APC's "Emilokan clips" ---these pulled more national conversation than traditional rallies. If it didn't trend, it didn't exist. Contents creators and campaign strategists are already being engaged rather than the ward coordinators for 2027 elections .
The Cavity: The empty space inside the noise*
Cavity is the hollow part between sound and substance, the 2023's noise and the 2027's risk.
2023 has already exposed the influence of the social media in shaping public opinion, but that of 2027 will surely deepen it. For all the noise, the center is often empty.
1. Sound over substance: We debate vibes, not data. "He’s young" vs "He’s experienced" replaces "Here’s his plan for power". Hashtags trend for 48 hours, then vanish. We spent months arguing BVAS, IReV, "upload issues". Huge noise, but little post-election deep-dive on electoral reform from citizens. The trend died after the Supreme Court judgment. Sound came, substance left.
2. Performance over policy: Politicians now campaign like influencers. Photo ops with less town halls meeting and engagement with electorates at the grassroots. Dance videos greater debt profiles. The stage is full, but the script is thin. Slogans beat policies: "Renewed Hope", "Take Back Nigeria", "Emilokan". Catchy, yes. But ask 10 voters to explain the actual policy difference on power or FX and the room goes quiet. 2027 is already shaping up with early slogans before white papers.
3. Amnesia over accountability: Each scandal resets the conversation. We remember the outrage, forget the follow-up. The space echoes, but nothing solid stays inside.Lekki tollgate, cash scarcity protests, subsidy removal pain. Each dominated feeds for days, then vanished when the next viral video dropped. No sustained pressure, no scorecards. The hall echoes, but nothing sticks to the walls
The Captivity: How the game keeps us locked?
Captivity is the cage both leaders and citizens built.
1. Party structures: Godfather politics, delegate buying, zoning formulas. New voices enter, but the rules don’t change, hopes are raised when new leaders are being ushered in, but before you blink your eyes twice, you realize that a well known devil is better than an imaginary angel. You can shout, but you still play by their playbook. Even shouting is an offense, and if you fail to shout, how will you be heard?. In order for them to secure their offices, they replaced a lawful and legally backed state Congresses up to twenty one state in the case of my political party with a stroke of pen in a lofty office in Abuja against the will of the people who lined up under a scorching sun to vote whom the knew, want and believed in
2. Clout incentives: For citizens, speaking up brings likes but also risk. Cancel culture, EFCC threats, "they will come for you". So we perform activism instead of organizing it.
3. Fear as bars: Fear of the past. Fear of "the other tribe". Fear of wasting your vote. That fear keeps voters choosing "lesser evil" instead of "better idea". Everyone knows the cage exists. Few test the lock.
Can we break the pattern?
Gravity won’t disappear. Culture will always pull people into politics, and that’s good. But a space can’t survive on gravity alone. The cavity needs filling: with policy literacy, with local organizing, with attention spans longer than a trend. The captivity needs testing: by new candidates, by issue-based voting, by citizens who move from tweets to wards.
Nigerian politics is loud, magnetic, and stuck. The question isn’t whether we feel the pull. It’s whether we’ll fill the hollow, and find the key. 2023 gave us the loudest political pop space Nigeria has ever seen, 2027 will decide if we use that noise to build something solid, or just turn the volume up again.
*Apagun Olaolu Samuel*
Chairman
Labour Party, Ogun State
As the Nigerian political space is being unnecessarily and increasingly overheated, political timetable compressed by INEC, electoral guidelines being changed abruptly amidst the game, and fulfillment of all electoral activities being swiftly runned by political parties in the wrong directions as petitions, rejoinders, counter petitions and court papers are flying here and there bore testimony to lack of adequate preparation and information dissemination from the electoral body and political parties. Several factions are shooting out dailies from political parties as the incumbent are not left out as they tarried long enough in some states awaiting the ruling party in such a state to cave in to the official party of the incumbent government.
Nigerian politics no longer lives only in Abuja conference rooms. It lives on X, in Nollywood skits, in Afrobeats lyrics, in WhatsApp broadcast lists. It pulls like a magnet, echoes like an empty hall, and traps like a cage. Gravity, cavity, captivity. Three forces shaping every election, protest, and debate. From 2023 till now, Nigerian politics moved from handshake deals at the grassroots and communities to hashtag wars, the space became a stadium, gravity pulls everyone in through social media, cavity left us shouting in the void, captivity kept the doors locked and the last four years has proven that.
*The Gravity: Why does everyone get pulled in*
Gravity is mass and pull/attention, Nigerian politics has both now in record amount, though it is likely to decline as some of first timers weakling politicians and social media influencers are no longer operating at the level they did in 2023, political godfather's and electoral management officers taught them lessons they will not forget so soon.
1. Culture and Ethnicity is the campaign*: Prevalent ethnicity turn by turn and the new cultural trend of Influencers forming public opinion is generating more of the gravitational force than reasonable blueprint of redemption for Nigeria. From Fela’s yabis to Burna’s "Monsters You Made", music does what manifestos can’t. A single tweet from Wizkid or Davido shifts more votes than a party rally in some states. "Soro Soke" from 2020 EndSARS became the campaign language in 2023. Peter Obi’s movement was powered less by party structure and more by Afrobeats fans, skit makers, Twitter spaces. Davido, Falz, Aisha Yesufu became de facto campaign managers. For the first time, a candidate’s Spotify playlist mattered as much as his party manifesto.
2. Youth are the mass: 70% of Nigerians are under 35.. That’s not just a demographic. It’s a gravitational field. "Obidients", "Soro Soke", "No gree for anybody" Apagunmanians, in the Ogun State Labour Party fast spreading across the southwest— these weren’t party slogans. They were cultural movements that dragged politics into everyday talk. They were not bought, or sought, they were pulled by the force of gravity, they organically sprouted as a movement beyond party boundaries to fill in the political cavity..
INEC said over 37m voters collected PVCs before 2023, and most were 18-34. That’s gravity. TikTok explainers on BVAS got more views than NTA debates. In 2027, that mass is older, more cynical, and already organizing on WhatsApp communities and X Spaces before parties even pick candidates.
3. Outrage is the orbit: Bad news travels faster than policy. One viral video of police brutality or failed infrastructure pulls more attention than a 50-page budget. Once you’re in orbit, silence feels like betrayal. My daughter engaged me on social media visibility and wishes someone will drag her, particularly someone whose followers runs to millions, which will advertently rubbed on her media visibility, but having a media visibility without a matching ground structure sometimes make a political party fizzle out in the shortest period of time. Imagine the "Ikeja City Mall protest", "Obidients" Twitter trends, even APC's "Emilokan clips" ---these pulled more national conversation than traditional rallies. If it didn't trend, it didn't exist. Contents creators and campaign strategists are already being engaged rather than the ward coordinators for 2027 elections .
The Cavity: The empty space inside the noise*
Cavity is the hollow part between sound and substance, the 2023's noise and the 2027's risk.
2023 has already exposed the influence of the social media in shaping public opinion, but that of 2027 will surely deepen it. For all the noise, the center is often empty.
1. Sound over substance: We debate vibes, not data. "He’s young" vs "He’s experienced" replaces "Here’s his plan for power". Hashtags trend for 48 hours, then vanish. We spent months arguing BVAS, IReV, "upload issues". Huge noise, but little post-election deep-dive on electoral reform from citizens. The trend died after the Supreme Court judgment. Sound came, substance left.
2. Performance over policy: Politicians now campaign like influencers. Photo ops with less town halls meeting and engagement with electorates at the grassroots. Dance videos greater debt profiles. The stage is full, but the script is thin. Slogans beat policies: "Renewed Hope", "Take Back Nigeria", "Emilokan". Catchy, yes. But ask 10 voters to explain the actual policy difference on power or FX and the room goes quiet. 2027 is already shaping up with early slogans before white papers.
3. Amnesia over accountability: Each scandal resets the conversation. We remember the outrage, forget the follow-up. The space echoes, but nothing solid stays inside.Lekki tollgate, cash scarcity protests, subsidy removal pain. Each dominated feeds for days, then vanished when the next viral video dropped. No sustained pressure, no scorecards. The hall echoes, but nothing sticks to the walls
The Captivity: How the game keeps us locked?
Captivity is the cage both leaders and citizens built.
1. Party structures: Godfather politics, delegate buying, zoning formulas. New voices enter, but the rules don’t change, hopes are raised when new leaders are being ushered in, but before you blink your eyes twice, you realize that a well known devil is better than an imaginary angel. You can shout, but you still play by their playbook. Even shouting is an offense, and if you fail to shout, how will you be heard?. In order for them to secure their offices, they replaced a lawful and legally backed state Congresses up to twenty one state in the case of my political party with a stroke of pen in a lofty office in Abuja against the will of the people who lined up under a scorching sun to vote whom the knew, want and believed in
2. Clout incentives: For citizens, speaking up brings likes but also risk. Cancel culture, EFCC threats, "they will come for you". So we perform activism instead of organizing it.
3. Fear as bars: Fear of the past. Fear of "the other tribe". Fear of wasting your vote. That fear keeps voters choosing "lesser evil" instead of "better idea". Everyone knows the cage exists. Few test the lock.
Can we break the pattern?
Gravity won’t disappear. Culture will always pull people into politics, and that’s good. But a space can’t survive on gravity alone. The cavity needs filling: with policy literacy, with local organizing, with attention spans longer than a trend. The captivity needs testing: by new candidates, by issue-based voting, by citizens who move from tweets to wards.
Nigerian politics is loud, magnetic, and stuck. The question isn’t whether we feel the pull. It’s whether we’ll fill the hollow, and find the key. 2023 gave us the loudest political pop space Nigeria has ever seen, 2027 will decide if we use that noise to build something solid, or just turn the volume up again.
*Apagun Olaolu Samuel*
Chairman
Labour Party, Ogun State
