Osun’s 2026 verdict and what it means for Nigeria’s opposition
BITTER PILLS; THRILLING RECOVERY, DRIZZLING PERFORMANCE
Politics in Nigeria rarely comes without bitterness. In Osun State, the August 15, 2026 governorship election served another dose.
Governor Ademola Adeleke has emerged victorious, weathering what his camp described as political intimidation and the weight of federal might deployed against him. It is a win that feels less like a stroll and more like a trek through thorns — hence the _bitter pills_. But the recovery has been thrilling, and the performance, though uneven in places, has been drizzling steadily enough to convince voters to grant him a second term.
The Battle Against the Odds
Adeleke’s re-election bid was never framed as business as usual. Running this time on the platform of the Accord Party, after leaving the PDP amid national crisis, he faced the APC’s Bola Oyebamiji and ADC’s Dr. Najeem Salaam in what observers called another highly competitive contest.
In the run-up, Adeleke himself alleged killings of party members and called on President Bola Tinubu to direct the police to act professionally and impartially. He described 2025 as “a challenging year due to external constraints” and warned against “beating drums of war” ahead of the poll.
Yet the governor leaned on what he called people-centred governance and visible projects across the state. His campaign council, inaugurated in Osogbo, promised grassroots mobilisation “at the wards and local government level”. The message was simple: performance over propaganda, calculated inauguration of projects in virtually all constituencies to force out his admirers and non admirers particularly amongst the traditional rulers to a reelection campaign laced with an appealing projects
“If this election is free and fair, I will win,” Adeleke said on the campaign trail. With less than 15 days to go, he declared “NO SHAKING, Imole is coming back”. Analysts also noted his long-standing relationship with civil servants, artisans and trade groups as assets.
Labour Party: The Missed Opportunity
While Adeleke was consolidating, the Labour Party was bleeding internally as a blissful opportunity were being lost in the process
The 2023 and 2024 political realignments created an opening. Several disrupted and evicted incumbent Governors of the PDP, frustrated by internal wrangling at the national level, looked for new platforms. Labour Party, with its post-2023 momentum, should have been the natural refuge. Instead, internal squabbles, factionalism, and lack of structure turned it into a waiting room with no exit.
The result: most of those PDP governors and heavyweights either returned to mend fences, moved to APC, or sat out. Labour Party failed to harvest them. What could have been a national expansion became a period of self-inflicted losses.
In Osun, that void mattered. Without a credible third-force structure, the contest narrowed to Accord, APC and ADC. Labour’s absence meant there was no serious alternative to absorb protest votes or disgruntled PDP structures. Adeleke would have preferred Labour Party at the time he was shopping for a platform and ultimately have added immensely to our structure, unfortunately the harvest slipped out.
Drizzling Performance, Thrilling Recovery
Adeleke’s first term was defined by infrastructure, welfare programs, and a deliberate effort to be seen and felt in the grassroots. Critics argued about concentration of projects around Ede, but supporters point to the “difference that purposeful, people-centred governance can make”.
He nearly became a politically stagnated orphan at a period in time, it was rumoured that powers that be denied him an appointment for a meeting but communicated him through a first class Yoruba king that he should go and join the ruling party, every attempt made by him to compromise was negated by Baba Kukuru, Esu lehin APC who loudly drum it to his ears that he will have to queue as the ticket will not be offered to him, that's a bitter pill to swallow. He encouraged himself further his search for another platform and landed in ACCORD PARTY, accordingly he became a man to celebrate today.
The recovery is thrilling because it came after 2022, when Adeleke defeated an incumbent with federal backing. To do it again in 2026, this time outside PDP, suggests a personal brand that transcends party lines. If re-elected, he would become only the second governor in Osun’s history to secure a second term.
But the performance is still “drizzling” — steady, but not yet a downpour. Expectations on jobs, security, and inclusive development remain high, especially with rising insecurity flagged as a factor in 2026.
*Time to Rethink and Recover Lost Ground*
Two lessons stand out.
1. For incumbents: People will reward delivery, even under pressure. Adeleke’s confidence came from pointing to tangible records, not just party structure. “_This team is heading to victory_,” he told his campaign council.
2. For the opposition: Labour Party’s failure to organize and accommodate displaced political forces was costly. The window to rethink is now. Without internal discipline, ideology, and structure, it risks remaining a movement of moments rather than a party of government. Many see the party as a transactional platform as many who did not toil in the party had managed to position themselves and political stooges in positions of power, ready for harvest in most states. Should this trend continue, we shall suffer existential threats and consequences
Osun 2026 reminds us that Nigerian voters are watching. They will swallow bitter pills if the recovery feels real. They will ignore loud noise if the performance is only drizzling.
The question now is not just who won Osun. It is whether other parties — especially our own Labour Party — will learn fast enough to recover the grounds they lost, recreate a bigger platform for ideological opposition and alternatives before 2027 comes calling.
© Apagun Olaolu Samuel
Chairman, Labour Party Ogun State
egberunsaamu2206@gmail.com
BITTER PILLS; THRILLING RECOVERY, DRIZZLING PERFORMANCE
Politics in Nigeria rarely comes without bitterness. In Osun State, the August 15, 2026 governorship election served another dose.
Governor Ademola Adeleke has emerged victorious, weathering what his camp described as political intimidation and the weight of federal might deployed against him. It is a win that feels less like a stroll and more like a trek through thorns — hence the _bitter pills_. But the recovery has been thrilling, and the performance, though uneven in places, has been drizzling steadily enough to convince voters to grant him a second term.
The Battle Against the Odds
Adeleke’s re-election bid was never framed as business as usual. Running this time on the platform of the Accord Party, after leaving the PDP amid national crisis, he faced the APC’s Bola Oyebamiji and ADC’s Dr. Najeem Salaam in what observers called another highly competitive contest.
In the run-up, Adeleke himself alleged killings of party members and called on President Bola Tinubu to direct the police to act professionally and impartially. He described 2025 as “a challenging year due to external constraints” and warned against “beating drums of war” ahead of the poll.
Yet the governor leaned on what he called people-centred governance and visible projects across the state. His campaign council, inaugurated in Osogbo, promised grassroots mobilisation “at the wards and local government level”. The message was simple: performance over propaganda, calculated inauguration of projects in virtually all constituencies to force out his admirers and non admirers particularly amongst the traditional rulers to a reelection campaign laced with an appealing projects
“If this election is free and fair, I will win,” Adeleke said on the campaign trail. With less than 15 days to go, he declared “NO SHAKING, Imole is coming back”. Analysts also noted his long-standing relationship with civil servants, artisans and trade groups as assets.
Labour Party: The Missed Opportunity
While Adeleke was consolidating, the Labour Party was bleeding internally as a blissful opportunity were being lost in the process
The 2023 and 2024 political realignments created an opening. Several disrupted and evicted incumbent Governors of the PDP, frustrated by internal wrangling at the national level, looked for new platforms. Labour Party, with its post-2023 momentum, should have been the natural refuge. Instead, internal squabbles, factionalism, and lack of structure turned it into a waiting room with no exit.
The result: most of those PDP governors and heavyweights either returned to mend fences, moved to APC, or sat out. Labour Party failed to harvest them. What could have been a national expansion became a period of self-inflicted losses.
In Osun, that void mattered. Without a credible third-force structure, the contest narrowed to Accord, APC and ADC. Labour’s absence meant there was no serious alternative to absorb protest votes or disgruntled PDP structures. Adeleke would have preferred Labour Party at the time he was shopping for a platform and ultimately have added immensely to our structure, unfortunately the harvest slipped out.
Drizzling Performance, Thrilling Recovery
Adeleke’s first term was defined by infrastructure, welfare programs, and a deliberate effort to be seen and felt in the grassroots. Critics argued about concentration of projects around Ede, but supporters point to the “difference that purposeful, people-centred governance can make”.
He nearly became a politically stagnated orphan at a period in time, it was rumoured that powers that be denied him an appointment for a meeting but communicated him through a first class Yoruba king that he should go and join the ruling party, every attempt made by him to compromise was negated by Baba Kukuru, Esu lehin APC who loudly drum it to his ears that he will have to queue as the ticket will not be offered to him, that's a bitter pill to swallow. He encouraged himself further his search for another platform and landed in ACCORD PARTY, accordingly he became a man to celebrate today.
The recovery is thrilling because it came after 2022, when Adeleke defeated an incumbent with federal backing. To do it again in 2026, this time outside PDP, suggests a personal brand that transcends party lines. If re-elected, he would become only the second governor in Osun’s history to secure a second term.
But the performance is still “drizzling” — steady, but not yet a downpour. Expectations on jobs, security, and inclusive development remain high, especially with rising insecurity flagged as a factor in 2026.
*Time to Rethink and Recover Lost Ground*
Two lessons stand out.
1. For incumbents: People will reward delivery, even under pressure. Adeleke’s confidence came from pointing to tangible records, not just party structure. “_This team is heading to victory_,” he told his campaign council.
2. For the opposition: Labour Party’s failure to organize and accommodate displaced political forces was costly. The window to rethink is now. Without internal discipline, ideology, and structure, it risks remaining a movement of moments rather than a party of government. Many see the party as a transactional platform as many who did not toil in the party had managed to position themselves and political stooges in positions of power, ready for harvest in most states. Should this trend continue, we shall suffer existential threats and consequences
Osun 2026 reminds us that Nigerian voters are watching. They will swallow bitter pills if the recovery feels real. They will ignore loud noise if the performance is only drizzling.
The question now is not just who won Osun. It is whether other parties — especially our own Labour Party — will learn fast enough to recover the grounds they lost, recreate a bigger platform for ideological opposition and alternatives before 2027 comes calling.
© Apagun Olaolu Samuel
Chairman, Labour Party Ogun State
egberunsaamu2206@gmail.com
