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Politics in Nigeria has always been a theater of alliances, betrayals, intrigues, suspense and calculated moves. The current pushback against Apagun Olaolu Samuel fits that pattern, but with a sharper edge. What is playing out is less about ideology and more about control, access, and who gets to sit at the table.
Late Sikiru Ayinde Barrister, the assumed creator of Fuji music once sang in one of his records portraying a cart pusher after running through a bend claiming to have sped 140km per hour, conclusively singing if a cart pusher can speed at that rate, what speed would driver of Rolls-Royce or Mercedes-Benz acclaimed. Subsequently, he noted that if the deceived do not know, the deceiver will definitely know he is deceiving the ignorants.
The Ogun State Labour Party conspiracy theory had long been penned immediately after the fallout of the alliance windfall in 2023, some beneficiaries after the unexpected financial benefits, attracted from the need to get more, formed a caucus around Mr. Kehinde Sogunle, the gubernatorial aspirant who sold out to PDP, to defend him at all cost, for them to be recognized and probably be recommended by him for appointments if peradventure Chief Ladi Adebutu, the candidate of PDP win the pending governorship case, since he was the sole negotiator with Ladi Adebutu and the already penned down Chief of Staff to be. Knowing that position is of high influence, some political jobbers swirled around him for patronage while some of us were bent on rebuilding Labour Party for better performance come this 2027 which ultimately set wedge in-between us.
*1. The Conspiracy: What the Jobbers Are Allegedly Doing*
"Political jobbers" in this context refers to operatives whose influence depends on patronage, contracts, and appointments rather than an elected mandate.
The narrative circulating is that a loose coalition of these jobbers became "enraged" after Apagun Olaolu Samuel and his team of men and women who believed in political renaissance began to disrupt their established channels of influence. The alleged moves include:
- *Media narratives*: Coordinated press releases and social media smear campaigns aimed at framing Samuel as an unrepentant dissident who does not "understand how things are done."
- *Gatekeeping*: Blocking access to party structures, transactional politics, and funding lines that traditionally flow through jobber networks.
- *Delegitimization*: Questioning his loyalty, legality, pedigree, and motives within party caucuses and stakeholder meetings.
The goal, according to sources close to the situation, is not outright removal but political containment. Make him a second class Chairman in order to silence him perpetually while he is being understudy by their men.
*2. The Intricacies: Why This Fight Is Not Straightforward*
This is not just Apagun vs. "the system." The intricacies make it messy:
- *Factions within factions*: Not all jobbers are aligned. Some see Samuel as a threat. Others see him as a potential new patron that is trying to cut a nitch for himself. That split creates double games and leaks.
- *Grassroots vs. Establishment*: Samuel appears to draw support from a base that is tired of recycled names. The jobbers rely on power brokers watching and walking the corridors of power in Abuja while Apagun rely solely on the structures and legitimate Congress as witness by INEC and security agencies. That clash of legitimacy vs. machinery is where most of the tension lives.
- *Timing*: In Nigerian politics, these battles intensify ahead of appointments, primaries, or Congress cycles. The timing of the pushback suggests someone feels their access is about to shrink.
- *Narrative warfare*: Both sides are fighting for the story. One side sells "reform and discipline." The other sells "experience and stability." Voters and party elders are the real audience.
*3. The Diplomacy: How It Is Being Managed*
Open war is bad for business. So the response has been diplomatic, even while the knives are out.
- *Elders and Intermediaries*: Senior party leaders are reportedly stepping in to broker truces. The language is always "unity" and "party supremacy," but the subtext is power sharing.
- *Backchannel talks*: Meetings in Abuja, Abeokuta, and Ijebu-ode are being used to test offers while financial influence are the usual bargaining chips.
- *Public restraint*: Despite the heat online, official statements from Samuel's camp have stayed measured. That is strategic. It keeps him looking like the calm one, while forcing the jobbers to overreach.
- *Coalition building*: Diplomacy here also means finding new allies. Youth groups, professional bodies, and even rival jobbers are being courted to widen Samuel's base beyond the current fight.
*4. What This Means Going Forward*
Three scenarios are likely:
1. *Accommodation*: The jobbers without negotiation placed Samuel in their official list for acceptability, but with limits on his influence. This is the most common Nigerian political ending.
2. *Escalation*: If no deal is reached, expect more leaks, petitions, and primary challenges designed to exhaust him. But his consistency and resilience will see him through as the legitimate Chairman of the Labour Party Ogun State or otherwise another round of legal battles will rock the boat of the party which is not in the best interest of anyone.
3. *Breakthrough*: If Samuel sustains grassroots support and attracts independent funding, he could bypass the jobber structure entirely.
The real test will be endurance. Conspiracies burn out. Intricacies get exposed. Diplomacy only works if both sides see more to gain from peace than from war.
*Bottom line*: This is not just about one man. It is about how power is distributed when an outsider refuses to play by old rules. The enraged jobbers are defending a system. Apagun Olaolu Samuel is testing whether that system can still say no.
© Apagun Olaolu Samuel
Chairman,
Labour Party, Ogun State
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