Osun 2026 Election: The Demystification of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola

Ogbeni Aregbesola 

Former Governor. Former Minister. Former Commissioner. Former best friend & confidant of President BAT GCFR. And now, a full-time opposition member of the ADC, a staunch political opponent of the APC  & everything it represents & also Governor Adeleke too.

But politics, ultimately, is not about titles, history, proximity or mythology. Politics is about numbers. And when the numbers come, they have a rather unforgiving way of stripping away the mystique.

If there is one thing the recent governorship election in Osun State has exposed, it is the uncomfortable truth about the supposed political weight of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, the former Commissioner for Works in Lagos, 2-term Governor of Osun State & former Minister of Interior under the APC-led administration of PMB.

For years, Aregbesola has been spoken of, & has spoken of himself, as one of the formidable political forces in Osun &, by extension, one of the major political players in the Southwest. But the ballot box has now had its say.

And from what the ballot box has told us, Ogbeni Rauf may have been a political heavyweight in the imagination of many, but the evidence before us suggests something considerably less imposing: a paperweight or in fact, a no weight at all! Chai!!! 

That is not an insult. It is an electoral diagnosis. And the numbers are there for everyone to interrogate. So, how did the great political machine perform? Consider this.

Aregbesola is not some newcomer to Osun politics. He governed the state for 8 years. He was once regarded as one of the strongest political figures in the state. He was a major political ally of President Tinubu. He has a reputation for having a formidable support base, particularly within the Ijesa axis of the state, where he hails from.

He has now thrown his considerable political reputation behind the African Democratic Congress, ADC.

And for this election, the party’s candidate was no political lightweight either. Rt. Hon. Najeem Folasayo Salaam, former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly & a former member of the House of Representatives, was the ADC candidate.

If Aregbesola's much-advertised political weight is as substantial as it has been projected, this should have been the moment to demonstrate it.

Instead, Salaam finished a distant third with a paltry 17,180 votes.

The Accord Party's Senator Ademola Adeleke (incumbent Governor, won with 511,067 votes, while the APC's Bola Oyebamiji came 2nd with 444,815 votes. The winning margin was therefore a staggering 66,252 votes.

That is not a minor electoral gap. That is an electoral canyon. And it becomes even more revealing when one begins to dissect where these votes actually came from.

The Ijesa question

Aregbesola is an Ijesa man. The Ijesa bloc is therefore one of the natural places where one would expect his political influence to be most visible. But what happened?

In the 6 local government areas that make up the major Ijesa concentration, Ilesa East, Ilesa West, Obokun, Oriade, Atakunmosa East & Atakunmosa West, the numbers tell a story that is difficult to explain away. Accord Party: 77,193 votes. APC: 79,920 votes. ADC: 2,351 votes.

Let that sink in.

In the very political territory from which one of the supposed Southwest's most prominent ADC figures hails, the ADC could only muster 2,351 votes across 6 local governments hmmmmm... 

Two thousand, three hundred & fifty-one.

For a political structure that has been portrayed as formidable, that number is not merely disappointing. It is devastatingly revealing. And it gets even more interesting.

Even Aregbesola's own Ilesa political territory did not exactly rise to the occasion for the ADC.

At his own polling unit in Ilesa, the reported figures were APC 256, Accord 43 and ADC 13. Thirteen.

Sometimes, politics does not need a long speech to make its point. A ballot paper can say it in three numbers.

And then came Ejigbo

The ADC candidate, Najeem Salaam, is from Ejigbo LG. Surely, if anywhere was going to be an ADC fortress, this should have been it. Yet Ejigbo Local Government gave Salaam only 5,053 votes.

Accord Party received 18,458.

APC received 16,195.

In other words, both of the 2 leading parties comfortably defeated the ADC in the very local government from which its candidate hails.

The supposed fortress was breached from within. And that is precisely why the result becomes bigger than Najeem Salaam.

It raises a much more fundamental question about the political structure supposedly standing behind him.

Because candidates do not manufacture 17,180 votes out of thin air. They are the product of structures, personalities, mobilisation, loyalty & political influence.

And when all of those are put to the test, the ballot box tells us what actually exists, not what has been said to exist.

Adeleke's Ede fortress

Now look at the other side of the equation.

Governor Ademola Adeleke did not merely win Osun. He demonstrated the power of his own political base.

In Ede North which is his paternal base, the Governor polled 35,427 votes. In Ede South, he polled another 26,188.

That gives him a combined 61,615 votes from the 2 Ede local governments alone.

The APC managed 10,283 in Ede North & 6,219 in Ede South, a combined 16,502. That's a margin of 46,113. It's so obvious where the votes which propelled him to victory came from then. 

ADC? Just 697. The contrast is almost brutal.

Adeleke's Ede delivered. Aregbesola's ADC did not.

And perhaps this is one of the most important lessons of this election: Political mythology may create headlines, but political structures produce votes.

Then came Ife

The APC's reconciliation with Senator Iyiola Omisore was another major political calculation in this election. But did it produce the expected electoral dividend?

The results suggest otherwise.

In the 4 Ife local governments, Accord won 3.

Ife North: Accord 13,879; APC 9,613.

Ife Central: Accord 21,171; APC 15,913.

Ife East: Accord 27,201; APC 18,600.

In Ife South, APC narrowly prevailed with 14,678, against Accord's 13,507. By just an inconsequential 1,171 votes which didn't count for much in the overall.

Overall, Accord polled 75,758 votes across the 4 Ife local governments, while APC managed 58,804.

ADC? A mere 2,305 votes. Again, the numbers refuse to cooperate with the mythology.

Then came Irewole

Bola Oyebamiji, the APC candidate, demonstrated that political candidates can also have formidable local structures.

In his Irewole Local Government, he polled 29,972 votes, against Accord's 10,934.

ADC?v275 votes.

Two hundred & seventy-five. The numbers keep speaking. And they are becoming increasingly difficult to silence.

The Senatorial Districts tell an even bigger story

Perhaps the most compelling way to examine this election is not merely through individual local governments but through the 3 senatorial districts in the state.

Osun has 3 senatorial districts, each comprising 10 local governments.

And Accord Party won all 3 senatorial districts. In Osun Central, Accord polled 169,164 votes, against APC's 162,094 and ADC's 4,472.

In Osun East, Accord polled 152,951, against APC's 138,724 & ADC's 4,656.

In Osun West, Accord polled a remarkable 188,952, against APC's 143,997 & ADC's 8,052.

Again, look closely at that last figure.

The biggest margin of victory came from Osun West, the same senatorial district from which the 3 major contestants emerged. And Adeleke did not merely win there. He danced home. He actually breakdanced! Chai!!! 

The aggregate numbers across the 3 senatorial districts tell the story even more forcefully:

Accord: 511,067

APC: 444,815

ADC: 17,180

There is almost something poetic about the disparity.

The ADC, with all the political noise & pedigree surrounding it in Osun, could not even get to twenty thousand votes in an election where the 2 leading parties were battling in the hundreds of thousands.

So, what exactly has Osun 2026 demystified? It has not demystified Rauf Aregbesola as a man. It has not erased his history.

It has not taken away the fact that he was a 2-term Governor. It has not erased his years as a major political figure in Lagos or his tenure as Minister of Interior.

And certainly, it does not erase his former proximity to President Tinubu.

But it has done something more important. It has subjected the mythology of his current political influence to the coldest & most objective test available in politics: the ballot box. And the ballot box has returned a rather humbling verdict.

Perhaps Ogbeni Rauf is not the political heavyweight many imagined him to be.

Perhaps his political influence today is considerably smaller than his reputation.

Perhaps he has mistaken historical relevance for contemporary electoral strength.

Or perhaps, more simply, he has overestimated the number of people who are still willing to follow him politically.

Whatever the explanation, Osun 2026 has provided the 1st hard empirical evidence with which the question can be seriously examined.

And the evidence is not flattering. But there is an even bigger question. What does all of this mean for 2027?

That is where this becomes considerably more interesting.

Can the ADC, under Aregbesola's leadership, suddenly transform 17,180 votes in Osun into a meaningful presidential-election structure across the Southwest?

Can a party that could only manage 2,351 votes across the 6 major Ijesa LGAs suddenly become a serious electoral force?

Can a former Speaker from his own political camp poll only 5,053 votes in his own Ejigbo, while Accord polled 18,458 & APC 16,195, & still claim a formidable grassroots machine?

These are not questions of sentiment. They are questions of arithmetic. And politics, especially electoral politics, has a brutal relationship with arithmetic.

But there is another intriguing dimension.

Governor Ademola Adeleke has publicly demonstrated support & cordiality towards President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR.

Yet in Osun, he has now defeated the APC candidate by a whopping 66,252 votes.

That tells us something important about Nigerian politics.

Local political allegiance & presidential political allegiance do not always travel together.

A politician can oppose the APC at the state level & still maintain a working relationship with the President at the federal level.

Adeleke's Osun victory therefore should not automatically be interpreted as a presidential referendum on Tinubu.

Neither should it be dismissed as irrelevant to 2027.

Rather, it raises a much more fascinating question: If Ademola Adeleke can command 511,067 votes in Osun while maintaining a publicly cordial relationship with President Tinubu, what happens when the presidential contest arrives?

And perhaps even more importantly: Where will the political energy that currently belongs to Adeleke's formidable Osun structure ultimately flow?

That is the question the political class should be asking.

Not merely who won Osun. Not merely who lost.

But what the numbers have revealed about who actually commands people, structures & loyalty when the rubber meets the road.

Because Nigerian politics has always had its legends. Its godfathers. Its kingmakers. Its strongmen. Its political juggernauts.

And, sometimes, its carefully cultivated myths.

But every 4 years, the ballot box comes along to ask one brutally simple question:

“Show me your followers.” In Osun 2026, the ballot box asked Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola that question.

And, at least from the numbers before us, the answer was surprisingly small.

Very, very small. That may well be the real story of Osun 2026.

Not simply the victory of Ademola Adeleke. Not simply the defeat of Bola Oyebamiji aka AMBO.

Not simply the spectacular underperformance of Najeem Salaam.

But the demystification of Ogbeni Rauf. The legend has met the numbers. And the numbers, as they say, do not lie.

Abiola Olatunde Aloba,

Ijesa by paternal blood. 

Ijebu Ode blue blood by maternal connection. 

Osun’s 2026 verdict and what it means for Nigeria’s opposition

BITTER PILLS; THRILLING RECOVERY, DRIZZLING PERFORMANCE

Politics in Nigeria rarely comes without bitterness. In Osun State, the August 15, 2026 governorship election served another dose.

Governor Ademola Adeleke has emerged victorious, weathering what his camp described as political intimidation and the weight of federal might deployed against him. It is a win that feels less like a stroll and more like a trek through thorns — hence the _bitter pills_. But the recovery has been thrilling, and the performance, though uneven in places, has been drizzling steadily enough to convince voters to grant him a second term. 

The Battle Against the Odds

Adeleke’s re-election bid was never framed as business as usual. Running this time on the platform of the Accord Party, after leaving the PDP amid national crisis, he faced the APC’s Bola Oyebamiji and ADC’s Dr. Najeem Salaam in what observers called another highly competitive contest. 

In the run-up, Adeleke himself alleged killings of party members and called on President Bola Tinubu to direct the police to act professionally and impartially. He described 2025 as “a challenging year due to external constraints” and warned against “beating drums of war” ahead of the poll. 

Yet the governor leaned on what he called people-centred governance and visible projects across the state. His campaign council, inaugurated in Osogbo, promised grassroots mobilisation “at the wards and local government level”. The message was simple: performance over propaganda, calculated inauguration of projects in virtually all constituencies to force out his admirers and non admirers particularly amongst the traditional rulers to a reelection campaign laced with an appealing projects

“If this election is free and fair, I will win,” Adeleke said on the campaign trail. With less than 15 days to go, he declared “NO SHAKING, Imole is coming back”. Analysts also noted his long-standing relationship with civil servants, artisans and trade groups as assets. 

Labour Party: The Missed Opportunity

While Adeleke was consolidating, the Labour Party was bleeding internally as a blissful opportunity were being lost in the process

The 2023 and 2024 political realignments created an opening. Several disrupted and evicted incumbent Governors of the PDP, frustrated by internal wrangling at the national level, looked for new platforms. Labour Party, with its post-2023 momentum, should have been the natural refuge. Instead, internal squabbles, factionalism, and lack of structure turned it into a waiting room with no exit.

The result: most of those PDP governors and heavyweights either returned to mend fences, moved to APC, or sat out. Labour Party failed to harvest them. What could have been a national expansion became a period of self-inflicted losses.

In Osun, that void mattered. Without a credible third-force structure, the contest narrowed to Accord, APC and ADC. Labour’s absence meant there was no serious alternative to absorb protest votes or disgruntled PDP structures. Adeleke would have preferred Labour Party at the time he was shopping for a platform and ultimately have added immensely to our structure, unfortunately the harvest slipped out.

Drizzling Performance, Thrilling Recovery

Adeleke’s first term was defined by infrastructure, welfare programs, and a deliberate effort to be seen and felt in the grassroots. Critics argued about concentration of projects around Ede, but supporters point to the “difference that purposeful, people-centred governance can make”. 

He nearly became a politically stagnated orphan at a period in time, it was rumoured that powers that be denied him an appointment for a meeting but communicated him through a first class Yoruba king that he should go and join the ruling party, every attempt made by him to compromise was negated by Baba Kukuru, Esu lehin APC who loudly drum it to his ears that he will have to queue as the ticket will not be offered to him, that's a bitter pill to swallow. He encouraged himself further his search for another platform and landed in ACCORD PARTY, accordingly he became a man to celebrate today.

The recovery is thrilling because it came after 2022, when Adeleke defeated an incumbent with federal backing. To do it again in 2026, this time outside PDP, suggests a personal brand that transcends party lines. If re-elected, he would become only the second governor in Osun’s history to secure a second term. 

But the performance is still “drizzling” — steady, but not yet a downpour. Expectations on jobs, security, and inclusive development remain high, especially with rising insecurity flagged as a factor in 2026. 

*Time to Rethink and Recover Lost Ground*

Two lessons stand out.

1. For incumbents: People will reward delivery, even under pressure. Adeleke’s confidence came from pointing to tangible records, not just party structure. “_This team is heading to victory_,” he told his campaign council.

2. For the opposition: Labour Party’s failure to organize and accommodate displaced political forces was costly. The window to rethink is now. Without internal discipline, ideology, and structure, it risks remaining a movement of moments rather than a party of government. Many see the party as a transactional platform as many who did not toil in the party had managed to position themselves and political stooges in positions of power, ready for harvest in most states. Should this trend continue, we shall suffer existential threats and consequences 

Osun 2026 reminds us that Nigerian voters are watching. They will swallow bitter pills if the recovery feels real. They will ignore loud noise if the performance is only drizzling.

The question now is not just who won Osun. It is whether other parties — especially our own Labour Party — will learn fast enough to recover the grounds they lost, recreate a bigger platform for ideological opposition and alternatives before 2027 comes calling.

© Apagun Olaolu Samuel 

Chairman, Labour Party Ogun State 

egberunsaamu2206@gmail.com

Why A Federal High Court Ordered Deregistration of ADC, Accord Party, APP, AA, ZLP

A Federal High Court Monday ordered the electoral umpire to deregister the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Accord Party and three other political parties.

Justice Peter Lifu issued the directive to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) while delivering judgement in a suit instituted by the Incorporated Trustees of the National Forum of Former Legislators.

Justice Lifu predicated his decision on the grounds that the affected political parties did not meet Section 225 of the Constitution.

The other political parties the court directed the electoral body to deregister are the Action Peoples Party (APP), Action Alliance (AA), Accord Party (AP), and Zenith Labour Party (ZLP).

The National Forum of Former Legislators had, in the suit marked FHC/ABJ/CS/2637/2026, prayed the court to determine whether INEC has a constitutional obligation to remove political parties that fail to meet the electoral performance thresholds set out in Section 225A of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), as reinforced by the Electoral Act 2022 and INEC’s regulations.

It was the position of the plaintiff that the five political parties listed as defendants in the matter had persistently failed to meet the constitutional benchmarks required to retain their registration.

The former legislators stressed that the requirements include winning at least 25 per cent of votes in a state during a presidential election or securing at least one elective seat at the national, state, or local government level.


They told the court that the ADC and the four other parties performed poorly in both the 2023 general elections and by-elections conducted by INEC, thereby failing to win seats across key tiers of government.

The litigants insisted that the continued existence of these five political parties as recognised political parties is unlawful and undermines the integrity of the country’s electoral system.

Among other reliefs, the plaintiff urged the court to declare that INEC is duty-bound to deregister such parties.

It further urged the court to compel the commission to deregister the five political parties before preparations for the 2027 elections advance further.

Beyond declaratory reliefs, the plaintiff prayed the court to restrain the five affected parties from participating in general elections or engaging in political activities such as campaigns, rallies, and primaries.

It also sought a court injunction restraining INEC from recognising or dealing with the parties in any official capacity unless and until they strictly comply with constitutional provisions.

The judgment may affect the chances of candidates of the affected political parties, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, to contest the 2027 presidential poll.

Incumbent Governor of Osun State Ademola Adeleke if the Accord Party may be facing major political setback.

It's hopeful that such judgement will be challenged at the Appeal Court.

Opposition political parties have been facing disorganization, sponsored disorderliness and brutal infiltrations and attacks including using the judiciary like never before in the political history of this country under the Bola Tinubu led pro terrorists government.  The security, Sociopolitical and economy of the country remains unsafe and uncertain as more than majority of the citizens are wallowing in abject poverty in the face of insecurity already destined the incumbent ruling party to lose the 2027 general elections.